Data-Driven Assessment and Forecasting of Port Services Demand: A Case Study of Shahid Rajaee Port

Rafati, Pouria; Sadaghi, Seyede Masoome; Fakher, Ali

doi:10.22034/ijcoe.2026.585298.1242

Data-Driven Assessment and Forecasting of Port Services Demand: A Case Study of Shahid Rajaee Port

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Pouria Rafati ¹

Seyede Masoome Sadaghi ²

Ali Fakher ³

¹ School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Road, Housing & Urban Development Research Center, Tehran, Iran

³ School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/ijcoe.2026.585298.1242

Abstract

Ports play a vital role in maritime transport and international trade, and port services—as a critical component of the maritime supply chain—significantly influence overall port efficiency. Accordingly, accurately forecasting port service demand in relation to economic fluctuations, trade constraints, and infrastructural conditions is essential for operational planning and infrastructure development. This study aims to analyze various categories of port services and to forecast service demand, with a specific focus on Shahid Rajaee Port. For this purpose, real operational data—including maritime and land-side traffic information and key performance indicators—were collected, refined, and analyzed using regression, time-series and moving-average models. The results indicate that variables such as cargo handling volume, number of incoming vessels, duration of marine service operations, truck and rail flows, economic and political conditions have a decisive impact on port service demand. The findings of this research provide valuable guidance for managers in resource allocation, capacity development, congestion management, and enhancing port operations in line with sustainable development objectives.

Keywords

Port Services

Service Demand Forecasting

Port Management

Data assessment

Shahid Rajaee Port

Subjects