Integrated Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Spectral Energy Analysis of the Makran Subduction Zone: Deriving Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes for Critical Marine Infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz

Akbarpour Jannat, Mahmood Reza; Kazeminezhad, Mohammad Hossein

doi:10.22034/ijcoe.2026.576295.1227

Integrated Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Spectral Energy Analysis of the Makran Subduction Zone: Deriving Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes for Critical Marine Infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Mahmood Reza Akbarpour Jannat ¹

Mohammad Hossein Kazeminezhad ²

¹ Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)

² INIOAS

10.22034/ijcoe.2026.576295.1227

Abstract

The strategic development of energy infrastructure along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), particularly the Kooh Mobarak Terminal near the Strait of Hormuz, demands a rigorous transition from deterministic assessments to risk-informed frameworks. While the eastern MSZ has a well-documented seismic history, the western segment presents a critical latent threat due to strong inter-seismic coupling. This study introduces an integrated framework combining Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) with advanced time-frequency analysis to quantify multi-dimensional risks. Building upon high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, site-specific "Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes" were derived to explicitly correlate wave height and current velocity. Results indicate that for the 975-year Maximum Credible Earthquake, the nearshore breakwater faces extreme compound loads, with wave heights approaching 3.0 m and velocities exceeding 2.3 m/s, necessitating a shift to hydrodynamic drag-based design criteria. Furthermore, spectral characterization using Welch’s method and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) identifies dominant energy bands at 24–30 and ~64 minutes, providing vital geometric constraints to avoid destructive harbor resonance. Additionally, time-frequency analysis reveals a significant lag between initial arrival and peak energy flux, demonstrating that hazardous agitation persists for over 4 hours. These findings underscore the imperative of adopting a performance-based design philosophy that accounts for probabilistic exceedance, resonance avoidance, and extended operational exclusion windows.

Keywords

Makran Subduction Zone

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA)

Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes

Time-Frequency Analysis

Strait of Hormuz

Subjects