The precise estimation of extreme water level fluctuations induced by storm surges constitutes a fundamental prerequisite for the reliable design of marine structures and effective coastal risk management. In this study, the hydrodynamic response of the Southern Caspian Sea coast to atmospheric forcing mechanisms is investigated using the advanced ADCIRC numerical model, employing the solution of Shallow Water Equations (SWE) over an unstructured finite element mesh. To conduct a rigorous spatial and parametric sensitivity analysis, simulations were executed under various wind field and atmospheric pressure scenarios across six strategic stations characterized by distinct morphological features, ranging from the shallow waters of Gomishan to the steep bathymetry of Astara. Quantitative results substantiate a distinct non-linear inverse correlation between the seabed depth gradient and surge amplitude; specifically, the southeastern coasts experience surge magnitudes of a higher order compared to the steep western coasts, attributed to the continental shelf geometry and the momentum trapping phenomenon. Furthermore, the decoupling of driving forces reveals that water level variations within the Caspian basin are predominantly governed by the wind shear stress vector and effective fetch, with the inverse barometric effect playing a secondary role. By elucidating the spatial heterogeneity of coastal risks—inundation hazards in the east versus wave impact loads in the west—the findings provide a novel framework for determining the Design Water Level (DWL) and calculating hydrodynamic loads on offshore piles and protective seawalls.