International Journal Of Coastal, Offshore And Environmental Engineering(ijcoe)

International Journal Of Coastal, Offshore And Environmental Engineering(ijcoe)

Investigation of Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations Based on ECMWF Satellite Imaging Models and Rivers Discharge

Authors
Soheil Ataei H. 1
Amir Jabari Kh. 1
Amir Mohammad Khakpour 1
Mehdi Adjami 1
Seyed Ahmad Neshaei 2
1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology
2 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Guilan
10.29252/ijcoe.2.2.21
Abstract
Due to the great importance of sea level changes especially for coastal regions, identifying and studying the factors affecting these variations makes it easier to predict changes of sea level and will help to determine the riparian zone and changes in coastal lines. In this research, precipitation-evaporation is studied based on ERA-Interim model of ECMWF in order to estimate changes in Caspian Sea (CS) level and the validity of the results is evaluated in a period between 1980 to the end of 2015. Recorded data about the rivers entering the CS were also studied for better prediction of changes in water level. According to satellite and software analyses, in average evaporation has increased with a rate of 0.89 Km3/year, while precipitation and rivers discharge have decreased by the rates of 1.09 Km3/year and 1.41 Km3/year, respectively during the 36 years. The standard deviation of the sea level change caused by Volga discharge (normally entering 249.13 Km3/year into the sea alone) is closer to the recorded standard deviation obtained from change of CS level than the other two factors. Also, the lowest and the highest correlation coefficients relative to the recorded sea level changes were calculated considering simultaneous effect of precipitation-evaporation, and simultaneous effect of all parameters, respectively. As a conclusion, it can be said that the main reason for decreasing the CS level during recent years could be attributed to the rise of evaporation in comparison to precipitation and inlet rivers discharges.
Keywords
Sea level change
Precipitation and Evaporation
Caspian Sea
Volga river
ERA-Interim
  1. Dean, R.G., (1983), Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise, Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Department, University of Florida. http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/1473.
  2. Dean, R.G., (1983), Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise, Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Department, University of Florida. http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/1473.
  3. :union: of Concerned Scientists, (2013), Storm Surge and High Tides Magnify the Risks of Local Sea Level Rise. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/causes-of-sea-level-rise.html#.V5yacGh97IU
  4. :union: of Concerned Scientists, (2013), Storm Surge and High Tides Magnify the Risks of Local Sea Level Rise. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/causes-of-sea-level-rise.html#.V5yacGh97IU
  5. Nicholls, R.J., Cazenave, A., (2010), Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, science, 328(5985), 1517-1520. doi: 10.1126/science.1185782 [DOI:10.1126/science.1185782]
  6. Nicholls, R.J., Cazenave, A., (2010), Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, science, 328(5985), 1517-1520. doi: 10.1126/science.1185782 [DOI:10.1126/science.1185782]
  7. Warrick, R.A., Oerlemans, J., (1990), Sea level rise, Cambridge University. Climate Change - The IPCC Scientific Assessment, pp. 257 – 281.
  8. Warrick, R.A., Oerlemans, J., (1990), Sea level rise, Cambridge University. Climate Change - The IPCC Scientific Assessment, pp. 257 – 281.
  9. Clark, P.U., Shakun, J.D., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Schrag, D.P., (2016), Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2923 [DOI:10.1038/nclimate2923]
  10. Clark, P.U., Shakun, J.D., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Schrag, D.P., (2016), Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2923 [DOI:10.1038/nclimate2923]
  11. Gornitz, V., Rosenzweig, C., Hillel, D., (1997), Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise, Global and Planetary Change, 14(3), 147-161. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2 [DOI:10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2]
  12. Gornitz, V., Rosenzweig, C., Hillel, D., (1997), Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise, Global and Planetary Change, 14(3), 147-161. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2 [DOI:10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2]
  13. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A., (2007), The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modeled, Quaternary International,173, 144-152. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008 [DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008]
  14. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A., (2007), The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modeled, Quaternary International,173, 144-152. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008 [DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008]
  15. Ieva, R., Otto, S., (2011), Vital Caspian Graphics 2 Opportunities, Aspirations and Challenges, Zoi Environment Network and GRID-Arendal.
  16. Ieva, R., Otto, S., (2011), Vital Caspian Graphics 2 Opportunities, Aspirations and Challenges, Zoi Environment Network and GRID-Arendal.
  17. Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Golitsyn, G.S., Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A., Sporyshev, P.V., (2000), Connection between Caspian Sea level variability and ENSO, Geophysical research letters, 27(17), 2693-2696. [DOI:10.1029/1999GL002374]
  18. Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Golitsyn, G.S., Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A., Sporyshev, P.V., (2000), Connection between Caspian Sea level variability and ENSO, Geophysical research letters, 27(17), 2693-2696. [DOI:10.1029/1999GL002374]
  19. Ports and Maritime Organization report, (2016), Caspian Sea Level Changes, Ministry of Roads & Urban development of I.R. Iran. http://www.pmo.ir/en/home
  20. Ports and Maritime Organization report, (2016), Caspian Sea Level Changes, Ministry of Roads & Urban development of I.R. Iran. http://www.pmo.ir/en/home
  21. Ignatov, Y.I., Kaplin, P.A., Lukyanova, S.A., Solovieva, G.D., (1993), Evolution of the Caspian Sea Coasts under Conditions of Sea-Level Rise: Model for Coastal Change under Increasing" Greenhouse Effect", Journal of coastal Research, 104-111.
  22. Ignatov, Y.I., Kaplin, P.A., Lukyanova, S.A., Solovieva, G.D., (1993), Evolution of the Caspian Sea Coasts under Conditions of Sea-Level Rise: Model for Coastal Change under Increasing" Greenhouse Effect", Journal of coastal Research, 104-111.
  23. Naderi Beni, A., Lahijani, H., Mousavi Harami, R., Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Marriner, N., Reimer, P.J., (2013), Caspian Sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea.
  24. Naderi Beni, A., Lahijani, H., Mousavi Harami, R., Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Marriner, N., Reimer, P.J., (2013), Caspian Sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea.
  25. Eghtesadi, S.H., Zahedi, R., (2012), Study of factors affecting the South Caspian Sea level fluctuations, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 10 (3), 4-13 (In Persian).
  26. Eghtesadi, S.H., Zahedi, R., (2012), Study of factors affecting the South Caspian Sea level fluctuations, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 10 (3), 4-13 (In Persian).
  27. Rodionov, S., (1994), Global and regional climate interaction: The Caspian Sea experience (Vol. 11), Springer Science & Business Media. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-011-1074-7]
  28. Rodionov, S., (1994), Global and regional climate interaction: The Caspian Sea experience (Vol. 11), Springer Science & Business Media. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-011-1074-7]
  29. Golitsyn, G.S., (1995), The Caspian Sea level as a problem of diagnosis and prognosis of the regional climate change, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 31(3), 366-372.
  30. Golitsyn, G.S., (1995), The Caspian Sea level as a problem of diagnosis and prognosis of the regional climate change, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 31(3), 366-372.
  31. Elguindi, N., Giorgi, F., (2006), Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations, Geophysical research letters, 33(8). doi: 10.1029/2006GL025943 [DOI:10.1029/2006GL025943]
  32. Elguindi, N., Giorgi, F., (2006), Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations, Geophysical research letters, 33(8). doi: 10.1029/2006GL025943 [DOI:10.1029/2006GL025943]
  33. Renssen, H., Lougheed, B.C., Aerts, J.C.J.H., De Moel, H., Ward, P.J., Kwadijk, J.C.J., (2007), Simulating long-term Caspian Sea level changes: the impact of Holocene and future climate conditions, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 261(3), 685-693. [DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.07.037]
  34. Renssen, H., Lougheed, B.C., Aerts, J.C.J.H., De Moel, H., Ward, P.J., Kwadijk, J.C.J., (2007), Simulating long-term Caspian Sea level changes: the impact of Holocene and future climate conditions, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 261(3), 685-693. [DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.07.037]
  35. Cazenave, A., Bonnefond, P., Dominh, K., Schaeffer, P., (1997), Caspian Sea level from Topex‐Poseidon altimetry: Level now falling, Geophysical Research Letters, 24(8), 881-884. [DOI:10.1029/97GL00809]
  36. Cazenave, A., Bonnefond, P., Dominh, K., Schaeffer, P., (1997), Caspian Sea level from Topex‐Poseidon altimetry: Level now falling, Geophysical Research Letters, 24(8), 881-884. [DOI:10.1029/97GL00809]
  37. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Lahijani, H., Khan, V., (2012), Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level, Hydrology and earth system science, 16, 19-27. [DOI:10.5194/hess-16-19-2012]
  38. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Lahijani, H., Khan, V., (2012), Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level, Hydrology and earth system science, 16, 19-27. [DOI:10.5194/hess-16-19-2012]
  39. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Wetterhall, F., Khan, V., Hagemann, S., Lahijani, H., (2013), Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis, Theoretical and applied climatology, 117(1-2), 41-60. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0937-6 [DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-0937-6]
  40. Arpe, K., Leroy, S.A.G., Wetterhall, F., Khan, V., Hagemann, S., Lahijani, H., (2013), Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis, Theoretical and applied climatology, 117(1-2), 41-60. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0937-6 [DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-0937-6]
  41. Chen, J.L., Pekker, T., Wilson, C.R., Tapley, B.D., Kostianoy, A.G., Cretaux, J.F., Safarov, E.S., (2017), Long‐term Caspian Sea level change, Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6993-7001. [DOI:10.1002/2017GL073958]
  42. Chen, J.L., Pekker, T., Wilson, C.R., Tapley, B.D., Kostianoy, A.G., Cretaux, J.F., Safarov, E.S., (2017), Long‐term Caspian Sea level change, Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6993-7001. [DOI:10.1002/2017GL073958]
  43. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, (2016), Precipitation and Evaporation data in the Caspian Sea, http://www.ecmwf.int
  44. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, (2016), Precipitation and Evaporation data in the Caspian Sea, http://www.ecmwf.int
  45. International Lake Environment Committee, (2005), Annual discharge into the Caspian Sea, World Lakes Database. http://www.ilec.or.jp/en/
  46. International Lake Environment Committee, (2005), Annual discharge into the Caspian Sea, World Lakes Database. http://www.ilec.or.jp/en/
  47. Caspian Sea National Research Center report, (2016), Caspian Sea Profiles, Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy of I.R. Iran. http://wri.ac.ir/csnrc
  48. Caspian Sea National Research Center report, (2016), Caspian Sea Profiles, Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy of I.R. Iran. http://wri.ac.ir/csnrc