Investigation on the Effects of Uncertainties in Construction Quality on the Bursting Capacity of Submarine Pipelines

Authors

1 Offshore Structural engineering, Petroleum University of Technology

2 Assistant professor, Offshore Structural Engineering Department,Petroleum University of Technology

3 Visiting Researcher, The University of Akron

Abstract

Construction quality plays an important role in the integrity of submarine oil and gas pipelines during their lifetime. Quality of material and quality of construction contractors are two major contributors to the durability of the pipelines. The risk regarding quality material and contractors creates major concerns in durability of pipelines and has a significant impact on the optimized balance between CAPEX and OPEX in Risk-based integrity management of pipeline. In this study, the impacts of construction quality and corresponding uncertainties on the probability of failure of submarine pipelines are investigated in a reliability analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show the important parameters within the study. The results show that the 33 percent reduction in uncertainty of construction quality has led to a reduction of more than 99 percent of the probability of failure. This indicates a high sensitivity of the probability of failure to structural uncertainty.

Keywords

References

1- Crawley, F. K., Lines, I. G., & Mather, J. (2003). Oil and gas pipeline failure modelling, 81(January).
2- Muhlbauer, W. K. (2004). Pipeline Risk Management Manual: Ideas, Techniques, and Resources.
3- HSE UK, Offshore Safety Statistics Bulletin, (2011) http://www.hse.gov.uk/offshore/, statistics /stat1011.htm
4- U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, (PHMSA), (2014) http://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/Index.htm/ nocache¼3213.
5- Aljaroudi, A., Khan, F., Akinturk, A., Haddara, M., & Thodi, P. (2015). Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 37, 101–109.
6- Sha, M., & Finkelstein, M. (2015). An optimal age-based group maintenance policy for multi-unit degrading systems, 134, 230–238.
7- Miran, Seyedeh Azadeh; Huang, Qindan; and Castaneda, Homero (2016) "Time-dependent reliability analysis of corroded buried pipelines considering external defects." Journal of Infrastructure Systems 22.3: 04016019.
8- Shafiee, M., & Ayudiani, P. S. (2015). Development of a risk-based integrity model for offshore energy infrastructures-application to oil and gas pipelines. International Journal of Process Systems Engineering, 3(4), 211–231.
9- Miran, Seyedeh Azadeh; Huang, Qindan; and Castaneda, Homero, Sajedi, Siavash (2016)"Optimal Inspection Interval Based on Reliability Assessment of Corroded Pipelines" proceedings of NACE Corrosion Risk Management Conference, Paper No. RISK16-8743, Houston, TX, USA.
10- Thodi, P., Khan, F., & Haddara, M. (2013). Risk based integrity modeling of offshore process components suffering stochastic degradation, 19(2), 157–180.
11- Haddara, M., Khan, F. I., Haddara, M. M., & Bhattacharya, S. K. (2006). Risk-Based Integrity and Inspection Modeling ( RBIIM ) of Process Components / System.
12- Straub, D., & Faber, M. H. (2005). Risk based inspection planning for structural systems. Structural Safety, 27(4), 335–355.
13- Tang,W.T, “. Probabilistic updating of flaw information”. J. Test Eval. 1 (6), 459e467,1973
15- Bevilacqua, M., & Braglia, M. (2000). The analytic hierarchy process applied to maintenance strategy selection. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 70(1), 71–83.
16- Tan, Z., Li, J., Wu, Z., Zheng, J., & He, W. (2011). An evaluation of maintenance strategy using risk based inspection. Safety Science, 49(6), 852–860.
17- DNVGL. (2013). OS-F101 - Submarine Pipeline Systems, (Outubro), 367.
18- Bai, Y., & Bai, Q. (2014). Subsea Pipeline Integrity and Risk Management.
19- Papaioannou, I., Breitung, K., & Straub, D. (2013). Reliability sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo methods, 5335–5342. 20- Spanier, J. & Oldham, K. B. (1987),” An Atlas of Functions”, Washington, DC: Hemisphere 21- Det Norske Veritas. Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability AnalysisGeneral. 1995 January 11, 1995;95-2018(DNV Technical Report):4
International Journal Of Coastal, Offshore And Environmental Engineering(ijcoe)
Volume 2, Issue 3 - Serial Number 7
October 2017
Pages 51-56

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics