Tsunami Assessment for Inundation Risk Management at Chabahar Bay Facilities in Iran


1 Academic staff

2 Ph.D. student


In this study two numerical models, one a regional generation and propagation model and the other an inundation model, have been applied to the problem of examining the impact that a large, locally generated tsunami could have on Chabahar Bay facilities in Iran. To achieve a realistic outlook of tsunami hazards in the area, the generation, propagation and interaction of tsunami waves with Chabahar Bay coasts is being numerically modeled for specific events. The modeling is performed using the numerical code which solves the nonlinear Boussinesq wave equations. Results of numerical simulations performed in this study considering past tsunami occurrence records indicate that the multipurpose Chabahar Port is expected to experience the tsunami events with heights ranging between 8 to 10 meters. The model gives approximately the observed maximum area of flooding of Chabahar City. The large amount of flooding of Chabahar city coasts, Iran from the 9.1 magnitude earthquake and small amount of flooding from the 8.3 magnitude earthquake achieved and extensively flooding Chabahar City was reproduced by the numerical model. The effect of the tide was modeled and found to be small. The results of this study are intended for emergency planning purposes. Appropriate use would include the identification of evacuation zones. The results are used also to find a best configuration advice for the urban facilities in order to mitigate tsunami related risks, with positioning such facilities at the Western Cape of the bay. 


1. Akbarpour Jannat M.R., Noranian Esfahani M., Chegini V. and Rezanejad K., 2011 “Hazards Associated with Tsunami Waves in the Gulf of Oman,” Journal of Coastal Research SI64:865-869 2. Ambraseys N.N. and Melville C.P., 2005. A history of persian earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, Britain 3. Arthurton R.S., Farah A. and Ahmed W., 1982 “The late cretaceous-cenozoic history of western baluchistan pakistan-the northern margin of the makran subduction complex,” Geological Society 10:373-385 4. Berninghausen W.H., 1966 “Tsunamis and Seismic seiches reported from regions adjacent to the Indian Ocean,” Bull Seismol Soc Am 56(1):69–74 5. Byrne D., Sykes L.R. and Davis D.M., 1992 “Great thrust earthquakes and aseismic slip along the plate boundary of the Makran subduction zone,” Journal Geophys Res 97:449–478 6. Chen Q., Kirby J.T., Dalrymple R.A., Kennedy A.B. and Chawla A., 2000 “Boussinesq modeling of wave transformation, breaking, and runup. II: 2D,” Journal Waterway Port Coastal Ocean Eng 126(1): 48–56 7. Day S.J., Watts P., Grilli S.T. and Kirby J.T., 2005 “Mechanical models of the 1975 Kalapana, Hawaii earthquake and tsunami.” Mar Geol 215(1–2): 59–92 8. Geist E.L., Titov V.V. and Synolakis C.E., 2006 “Tsunami: Wave of change,” Scientific American 56-63, 2006. 9. Grilli S.T. and Watts P., 1999 “Modeling of waves generated by a moving submerged body: Applications to underwater landslides,” Engrg Analysis Boundary Elements 23(8):645-656 10. Grilli S.T., Vogelmann S. and Watts P., 2002 “Development of a 3D numerical wave tank for modeling tsunami generation by underwater landslides,” Engng Anal Bound Elem 26: 301—313. 11. Grilli S.T., Ioualalen M., Asavanant J., Shi F., Kirby J.T. and Watts P., 2007 “Source Constraints and Model Simulation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami,” J. Waterway Port Coastal Ocean Eng 133(6):414-428 12. Heck N.H., 1947. List of seismic sea wave. Bull Seismol Soc Am 37(4):269–286 13. Heidarzadeh M., Dolatshahi P., Hajizadeh Zaker N. and Yalciner A.C., 2008 “Historical tsunamis in the Makran subduction zone off Southern Coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of preliminary numerical modeling,” Ocean Eng 35:774–786 14. Heidarzadeh M. and Satake K., 2014 “Possible sources of the tsunami observed in the northwestern Indian Ocean following the 2013 September 24 Mw 7.7 Pakistan inland earthquake,” Geophys Journal Int. doi:10.1093/gji/ggu297 15. Heidarzadeh M. and Satake K., 2014 “New Insights into the Source of the Makran Tsunami of 27 November 1945 from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Deformation Data” Pure and Appl. Geophys. DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0948-y 16. Ioualalen M., Pelletier J., Watts P. and Regnier M., 2006 “Numerical modeling of the 26th November 1999 Vanuatu tsunami,” Journal Geophys Res 111 C06030 17. Kennedy A.B., Chen Q., Kirby J.T. and Dalrymple R.A., 2000 “Boussinesq modeling of wave transformation, breaking, and runup. I: 1D,” Journal Waterway Port Coastal Ocean Eng 126(1):39–47 18. Murty T. and Rafiq M., 1991 “A tentative list of tsunamis in the marginal seas of the north indian ocean,” Natural Hazards 4:81-83 19. Neetu S. et al., 2011 “Trapped waves of the 27 November 1945 Makran tsunami: observations and numerical modeling,” Natural Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9854-0 20. Okada Y., 1985. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bull Seismol Soc Am 75(4):1135–1154 21. Page W.D., Alt J.N., Cluff L.S. and Plafker G., 1979 “Evidence for the recurrence of large magnitude earthquakes along the Makran Coast of Iran and Pakistan,” Tectonophysics 52:533–547 22. Pararas-Carayannis G., 2006 “The potential for tsunami generation along the Makran subduction zone in the northern Arabian Sea. Case study: the earthquake and tsunami of November 28, 1945,” Sci Tsunami Hazards 24(5):358–384 23. Payande A.R., Niksokhan M.H. and Naserian H., 2014 “Tsunami hazard assessment of Chabahar bay related to megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone,” Nat Haz 74:1-16 24. Rafi Z., Mahmood N., 2010 “Numerical modeling of tsunami inundation for potential earthquake at makran subduction zone - a case study for gwadar coastal area,” Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad PMD-45 25. Rajendran C.P., Ramanamurthy M.V., Reddy N.T. and Rajendran K., 2008 “Hazard implications of the late arrival of the 1945 Makran tsunami,” CURRENT SCIENCE, 95(12):1739-1743 26. Rastgoftar E., Akbarpour Jannat M.R., Chegini V. and Rostami M., 2012 “Investigation of Chabahar Bay inundation associated with tsunami of Makran subduction zone,” 10th International Conference on Coasts, Ports & Marine Structures (ICOPMAS) Tehran Iran 27. Smith G.L., McNeill L.C., Wang K., He J. and Henstock T.J., 2013 “Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone,” Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/grl.50374 28. Titov V.V., Rabinovich A.B., Mofjeld H.O., Thomson R.E., and Gonzalez F.I., 2005 “The global reach of the 26 December 2004Sumatra tsunami,” Science 309: 2045–2048 29. Vernant P.h., Nilforoushan F. and Hatzfeld D. et al., 2004 “Present-day crustal deformation and plate kinematics in the middle east constrained by GPS measurements in Iran and Northern Oman,” Geophys J Int 157:381–398 30. Wells D.L. and Coppersmith K.J., 1994 “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84 (4), 974–1002 31. Watts P., Borrero J.C., Tappin D.R., Bardet J.P. and Grilli S.T., et al., 1999 “Novel simulation technique employed on the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami,” Proceedings of 22nd General Assembly IUGG Birmingham UK JSS42 Abstract 32. Watts P., Grilli S.T., Kirby J.T., Fryer G.J. and Tappin D.R., 2003 “Landslide tsunami case studies using Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model,” Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3:391–402 33. Watts P., Ioulalen M., Grilli S.T., Shi F., Kirby J.T., 2005 “Numerical simulation of the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using a higher-order Boussinesq model,” Proc 5th Int Conf on Ocean Wave Measurement and Analysis, WAVES 2005 Madrid Spain Paper No. 221 34. Waythomas C.F. and Watts P., 2003 “Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by pyroclastic flow at Aniakchak Volcano, Alaska,” Geophys Res Lett 30(14):1751–1755 35. Wei G. and Kirby J.T., 1995 “Time-dependent numerical code for extended Boussinesq equations,” J. Waterway Port Coastal Ocean Eng 121(5): 251–261 36. Wei G., Kirby J.T., Grilli S.T. and Subramanya R., 1995 “A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model for free surface waves. Part 1: Highly nonlinear unsteady waves,” J. Fluid Mech 294: 71–92.